The President’s Inbox

Trump and Xi in Beijing, With Rush Doshi

This episode unpacks President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the first by a sitting U.S. President in nearly a decade, as the United States and China work through a tense period of détente.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative

 

We Discuss:

• Whether the Trump-Xi summit will represent continuity or a new phase in the U.S.-China relationship.
• How China assesses the military and economic balance of power with the United States.
• What last year's trade war revealed and how it produced the current period of managed competition.
• As Rush Doshi puts it: “I don’t think there’s going to be a large structural breakthrough.”
• What deliverables the Trump administration is seeking from the summit, and why negotiations are focused on process mechanisms and stability.
• How China has responded to the U.S.-Iran war and why it has stayed on the sidelines despite having clear strategic interests.
• Why China welcomes U.S. entanglement in foreign conflicts but fears their effects on global trade and resource access.
• Why China is more exposed than the United States freedom of navigation threats and naval chokepoints.
• Why President Biden never traveled to Beijing, and how China is framing Trump's visit.
• Why American CEOs are joining Trump's trip, and what role they play in the summit.
• Whether the U.S. and China will negotiate agreements on artificial intelligence and its role in great power competition.
• How China has treated seemingly mutually-beneficial crisis communication channels as negotiation ploys in return for U.S. concessions. 
• Whether Taiwan will be on the agenda, what concessions China is seeking, and how U.S. policy shifts could affect internal Taiwanese politics on unification.
• How a so-called Board of Trade and other bilateral mechanisms could formalize a lasting state of managed trade between the two countries

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

“President Xi Jinping Speaks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the Phone” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 

Evelyn Cheng, “Trump is taking more than a dozen U.S. executives to China. Jensen Huang isn’t one of them,” CNBC

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-and-xi-in-beijing-with-rush-doshi 

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The Spillover: Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced. 

 

Hosts: 

 

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

 

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

 

Guest: 

 

Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

 

We discuss:

• How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events.
• The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture.
• Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling.
• As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?”
• The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets.
• An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet.
• How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up.
• Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players.

 

Mentioned on the Episode: 

 

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board

 

“The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution 

 

Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation

 

Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's

 

Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.

 

The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

How to Build an American Foreign Policy, With Michael Mandelbaum

This episode unpacks three enduring pillars that have defined U.S. foreign policy from the nation’s founding to today: ideology, economic statecraft, and democratic accountability.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Michael Mandelbaum, Professor Emeritus of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Author, The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy

 

We Discuss:

• Whether the United States can be said to have a coherent foreign policy "personality".
• How geographic and geopolitical advantages have historically enabled a more ideological U.S. foreign policy than most countries can afford.
• Whether ideology in U.S. foreign policy represents genuine conviction or merely a veneer for self-interest. 
• What the post-Cold War era reveals as the "golden age of foreign policy of ideas”.
• What drives the persistent American tendency toward economic statecraft, sanctions, and “mirror imaging”.
• How public opinion, interest groups, political parties, and elections influence foreign policy decisionmaking.
• Whether President Trump's foreign policy fits within—or represents a departure from—the three enduring American traditions in U.S. foreign policy.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy by Michael Mandelbaum (Oxford University Press, 2025)

 

Embargo Act of 1807

 

George W. Bush, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 2005

 

Vice President JD Vance, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2025

 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/how-to-build-an-american-foreign-policy

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

America at 250: The Spanish-American War, With H.W. Brands

This episode unpacks the causes, key events, and consequences of the Spanish-American War, highlighting how it shaped U.S. foreign policy into the modern era. 

 

To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

H.W. Brands, Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History, The University of Texas at Austin

 

We Discuss:

• What drove the United States toward assertive foreign policy in the 1890s.
• Who the "jingoes" were and how American leaders pushed for American power abroad.
• Whether access to China drove American interest in Spain's Pacific empire.
• Why the USS Maine explosion changed the political calculus for entering a war with Spain.
• What the Teller Amendment accomplished and what its drafters failed to anticipate.
• Whether the annexation of the Philippines was ultimately the least-bad option for the Filipino people.
• What the Spanish-American War's legacy reveals about how the United States became—and chose to remain—a global power.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Monroe Doctrine, December 2, 1823

McKinley's First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1897

Theodore Roosevelt, Naval War College Address, June 2, 1897

The Teller Amendment, April 19, 1898

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-spanish-american-war

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

What Comes Next After Failed U.S.-Iran Talks, With Elliott Abrams

This episode unpacks the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad and the prospect of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

• What transpired during the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad.
• Whether both sides abandoned their own preconditions before talks began.
• How unusually senior and small the negotiating delegations were.
• What the logic and mechanics of the U.S. naval blockade are.
• Why other countries have not joined the blockade and may resist it.
• What the Arab Gulf states are privately urging Washington to do.
• Whether Israel and the U.S. share the same goals regarding the Iranian regime.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026

 

Harry Sekulich and Kate Whannel, "Starmer Says UK Will Not Join Trump's Blockade of Iran's Ports," BBC

 

Defense Technical Information Agency, "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," October 1, 2007

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-comes-next-after-failed-us-iran-talks

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Russia’s Stakes in the Iran War, With Thomas Graham

This episode unpacks the opportunities and risks Moscow is facing amid the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow, CFR

 

We Discuss:

• Whether Russia and Iran are true allies, or simply friends of convenience.
• How decades of rivalry and recent convergence shaped the current Moscow-Tehran relationship.
• Why Russia's strategic partnership with Iran excludes a mutual defense obligation.
• What role Russian intelligence sharing may be playing on the Middle East battlefield.
• How rising oil prices help Russia in the short term but carry serious long-term economic risks.
• Whether keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed serves Moscow's interest.
• How Operation Epic Fury has stalled peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, and complicated weapons supply to Kyiv.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015

 

Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, January 17, 2025

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/russias-stakes-in-the-iran-war

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Gulf States Under Fire, With Mina Al-Oraibi

This episode unpacks how the war with Iran will affect the future of the Gulf countries’ security and economic prosperity.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National

 

We Discuss:

• Whether Gulf states supported or opposed the war with Iran and their role in the intensive diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict before it began.
• How Iran’s retaliation expanded the war into the Gulf, targeting civilian infrastructure, energy hubs, and global transit points.
• The scale of drone and missile attacks across the region, and what they reveal about modern asymmetric warfare.
• Who is actually in charge in Iran, and how the IRGC is shaping decision-making and escalation.
• Why regime change in Iran remains unlikely, despite internal unrest and external pressure.
• Why Gulf leaders don’t want a simple ceasefire, but rather a long-term security reset that addresses Iran’s missile and drone programs.
• How the war is stress-testing Gulf economies and their long-term bets on stability, globalization, and diversification.

 

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015

 

Vibhu Mishra, "Security Council Adopts Gulf-Backed Resolution Condemning Iran Attacks; Russia Bid Fails," United Nations News

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/gulf-states-under-fire

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran, With Kristi Govella and Constanze Stelzenmüller

We discuss:

 

• Why U.S. allies are refusing to join the Iran war, and what that signals about weakening alliance cohesion and growing strategic independence.
• How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, is already reshaping the global economy and raising the stakes for every U.S. partner. 
• Europe’s balancing act, publicly rejecting the war while quietly enabling U.S. operations through military bases.
• Japan’s pragmatic hedging, supporting the U.S. diplomatically while using constitutional limits to avoid direct military involvement. 
• The cascading global risks of the conflict, from energy shocks and inflation to refugee flows and rising geopolitical instability. 
• The long-term erosion of U.S. soft power, especially among younger generations in Europe and shifting public sentiment in Japan. 

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

“Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks at the Munich Security Conference,” The White House

 

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio Delivers Remarks to the Munich Security Conference,” U.S. Embassy in Switzerland and Liechtenstein

 

“G7 Statement on Support to Partners in the Middle East,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-allies-arent-following-on-iran

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The Strategy Gap in Iran, With Max Boot

Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick senior fellow for national security studies at the Council, sits down with James M. Lindsay to analyze what tactical and strategic lessons can be drawn from the U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, Alex Leary, and Vera Bergengruen, "Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War," Wall Street Journal

 

Hugo Lowell, "U.S. Only Has 25% of All Patriot Missile Interceptors Needed for Pentagon’s Military Plans," The Guardian

 

Seth Jones, "Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base," Center for Strategic and International Studies

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-strategy-gap-in-iran

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

America at 250: The Lend-Lease Act, With Lynne Olson

Lynne Olson, acclaimed historian and author of Those Angry Days: Roosevelt, Lindbergh, and America’s Fight Over World War II, 1939–1941, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the history of the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 and the domestic political struggles that shaped the United States’ entry into the Second World War.

 

To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Winston Churchill, "Letter to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt," December 8, 1940

 

Council on Foreign Relations, The 10 Best and 10 Worst Decisions in U.S. Foreign Policy

 

Charles Lindbergh Testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, January 23, 1941

 

Lynne Olson, Those Angry Days: Roosevelt, Lindbergh, and America’s Fight Over World War II, 1939-1941

 

Wendel Wilkie Testimony to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, February 10, 1941

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-250-the-lend-lease-act

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.